Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 07:31:58 ACUS03 KWNS 220731 SWODY3 SPC AC 220730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ....Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ....Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ....Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ....Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ...Dean.. 06/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .