Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1394
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 21 2025 06:35:01

ACUS11 KWNS 210634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210634=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-210830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern WI into the Upper Peninsula of
MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 210634Z - 210830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong wind gusts are possible with
thunderstorm activity into early morning.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed within a warm advection
regime and on the nose of an 850 mb low-level jet spreading
northeast with time. This activity is likely elevated, but steep
midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind profiles are present across
the region. Isolated large hail will be the main hazard, with
sporadic hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range possible. Trends will
be monitored for possible increasing storm coverage/intensity,
though severe thunderstorm watch issuance is uncertain given the
overall marginal thermodynamic environment with eastward extent
across the U.P. and northeast WI.

...Leitman/Mosier.. 06/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-f1RbzbhT7haf6A0AeEUSw9QL-4b4Xqfj92lNwIAmQxR0geb3qogexQSHjsVPM1tPBd7OE6fm=
b3pgUNNqp2DPVbjtXk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   47189047 47348885 47148819 46628749 45978762 45458799
            45208852 45228917 45608961 46159029 46449075 46839076
            47189047=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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