Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1393
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 21 2025 05:53:59

ACUS11 KWNS 210553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210553=20
MNZ000-210730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern MN.

DISCUSSION...A new, intense bow is developing across northwest MN as
a series of supercells have merged and strong rear-inflow (noted in
the KMVX VWP data) from the west spreads across the region in tandem
with a 45+ kt low-level jet. This bowing segment, currently over
Beltrami and Hubbard Counties is expected to develop east along the
warm front draped west to east across northern MN. While low-level
inhibition is quite strong due to nocturnal stabilization of the
near-surface, moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and
a very favorable shear parameter space will likely maintain this
organized bowing structure for at least a couple of hours. An
attendant risk for 75+ mph gusts will accompany this bowing segment,
with so potential from a tornado or two near the apex. Additional
warm advection storms developing ahead of this bow also will pose a
risk for large hail into northeast MN.

...Leitman.. 06/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!70j5hlEP_OOXyWLiB35a-q4l-badRYqXwErSiKPunbK7ECtVXf3eRxMSgvG1QXVOMGCCdwi63=
2KwGe4PZLYxr5PA4XI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47759533 47939456 47959338 47869263 47729206 47489182
            47179198 46939251 46889342 46909459 47039517 47119544
            47759533=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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