Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1388
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 21 2025 01:46:26

ACUS11 KWNS 210146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210145=20
NDZ000-210215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

Valid 210145Z - 210215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of focused, but destructive burst-swaths are
possible with the apex of a bow-echo with embedded mesovortices.
Gusts could exceed 100 mph, especially if the two ongoing burst
swaths merge.

DISCUSSION...KBIS NEXRAD data shows intense inbound velocities at
the bow-echo apex, likely driven by mesovortices. In Morton County,
ND, there is evidence of rear-inflow jet winds coinciding with the
rotational component of flow around a leading-line/system-scale
mesovortex, and it is here where the most intense winds may occur.
Inbound velocities are approaching 110 kts about 2000 ft above the
ground, and a 94 mph measured gust had occurred earlier. Current
thinking is that two ongoing burst swaths in this area may merge.
Should this occur, gusts could briefly exceed 100 mph. Furthermore,
if any mesovortex circulations can intensify, a tornado is also
possible.

...Squitieri.. 06/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-5KXO-O9InRLcBARLhtfYRY9H1R9bBIKuH93JHHBeThUaCyGCZYtPNRMWlzvruLj2hGKuMlll=
UBvYa-_CngwWf2uo1E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   46970197 47020123 46930083 46670067 46490091 46480119
            46570169 46970197=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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