Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 21 2025 01:16:39

ACUS11 KWNS 210115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210115=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-210315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 448...

Valid 210115Z - 210315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher tornado and very large hail
(2-3 inches) potential may be emerging across eastern North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, a lone supercell has shown
signs of steady intensification and organization based on
reflectivity/velocity imagery, live web feeds, and a recent report
of golf ball-sized hail. Additionally, 1-minute GOES IR imagery
shows additional convective towers beginning to deepen to the
southwest of the initial cell within a zone of pronounced isentropic
ascent. Given the extremely buoyant and strongly sheared
environment, continued storm intensification appears probable over
the next 1-2 hours as storms migrate north/northeast towards the Red
River. Although storms may be slightly elevated at the moment given
their initiation zone atop a stable stratus deck, strengthening
low-level pressure perturbations will likely lead to storms becoming
surface-based within the next hour or so. As this occurs, storms
will likely begin ingesting the strong low-level SRH within the
frontal zone (as hinted at by recent RAP soundings and a modified
00z BIS sounding), and will pose an increasing tornado threat,
including the potential for a strong tornado. An increase in the
low-level jet through the evening will likely bolster low-level
shear with an attendant increase in the tornado risk. Additionally,
the kinematic environment should be conducive for very large (2-3
inch) hail stones. This threat should remain fairly localized across
east-central ND given the relatively focused initiation
zone/mechanism.

...Moore.. 06/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6_uJjKhvONSxGbU1Ri6vJsa07p9f7EC6NC9iEjDjNSzAZDzbCkAP27emhTLRsvWWLRJ6A_6K4=
8daJUnfxewtqO0R8dE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46429912 46729921 47089890 47589807 47679768 47639727
            47569698 47449683 47229681 47039687 46859700 46709710
            46559736 46409799 46359868 46359897 46429912=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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