Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1376
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 20 2025 01:01:18

ACUS11 KWNS 200101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200100=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia into northeast North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

Valid 200100Z - 200300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist across far southeast
Virginia and into northeast North Carolina through 03 UTC as a line
of storms continues to push east.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to push east along
and just south of the VA/NC border. The northern segment of this
line remains favorably oriented nearly orthogonal to low-level shear
vectors per regional VWP observations and the recent 00 UTC MHX
sounding, which will help maintain some degree of storm
organization. The southward propagation of an outflow boundary out
of southeast VA will likely shunt the focus for additional robust
convective development within the line into far southeast
VA/northeast NC through 03 UTC. Although velocity imagery from KAKQ
has shown a weakening wind signal over the past half hour, GOES IR
imagery continues to show deep/robust updraft development, and the
rich low-level moisture in place should help modulate the influence
of nocturnal cooling/stabilization to some degree. Consequently, an
intensification of low-level winds, and perhaps some hail threat,
may materialize downstream.

Further southwest, the southern portion of the line has become
outflow dominant with deep convection well displaced behind the
outflow boundary. Despite this trend, the buoyant environment
sampled by the MHX sounding may continue to support robust, though
somewhat transient, updrafts with an attendant risk of sporadic hail
and periodic strong/severe downbursts.

...Moore.. 06/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9O89hNxbO8kurj7KCQhROzEyQHSkQswEo3fAHi0bbQ3_C8oJb9GXajFykkHqSx_aPKCNGHPHM=
giXfeJlLDuxpOUEkOI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35777904 36197770 36547733 36857700 37027666 37067625
            37057605 36727584 36297574 35917560 35557580 35377603
            35227630 35147665 35127716 35307855 35437890 35607907
            35777904=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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