Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1375
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 23:29:48

ACUS11 KWNS 192329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192329=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192329Z - 200130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
along the dryline. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, but storm
coverage suggests a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to very
steep 0-3km lapse rates along the dryline this afternoon as
temperatures warmed through the mid and upper 90s. As a result, CINH
is minimal and low-level convergence appears more than adequate for
isolated robust convection from northern NE, southwest across
western KS into southeast CO. Slow-moving supercells may continue
along this corridor deep into the evening hours as a LLJ is expected
to strengthen across the central Plains after sunset. However, storm
coverage may prove too sparse to warrant a severe thunderstorm
watch.

...Darrow/Smith.. 06/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5UPeWOEB9FjgcG3MYeonqGVxRcw494Fs08pl29AGFLdxCMomTAe9DLf80FVrZE3wBjzMtaka3=
HW0JrMosTzKTVRlYqg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37150304 39400133 42559959 42639846 39999958 37580152
            37150304=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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