Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 22:31:18

ACUS11 KWNS 192231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192230=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and far southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192230Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A bowing line segment will likely pose a severe wind risk
along the North Carolina/Virginia border region over the next few
hours. Watch issuance is probable if the band remains south of WW
442.

DISCUSSION...A convective cluster has quickly organized into a
compact bowing line segment across northern NC over the past 60-90
minutes. TRDU velocity imagery shows a consolidating outflow
boundary associated with this line as well as severe winds at about
2-3 kft ARL, and GOES IR imagery shows rapid intensification via
cooling cloud-top temperatures. This band will likely propagate to
the east/northeast along a diffuse outflow boundary draped from
eastern VA into northern NC. Ahead of the outflow, temperatures in
the upper 80s and low 90s are supporting a regional buoyancy maximum
(around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) that, when coupled with 30-35 knots of
effective bulk shear, should promote further intensification over
the next couple of hours. Consequently, the severe wind threat
should increase downstream along the VA/NC border. It remains
unclear how far south the outflow will propagate as this
intensification occurs, but watch issuance is probable if the band
remains south of WW 442.

...Moore/Smith.. 06/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!44awM3i1QcdBpm9ihcAWmMMz-xQWwVgA5GQeF1cGfT2luv-IHXcfH9bv3zn6_mulgeSYCJX_x=
ZiuxrenQrAsw5rgeAk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35997974 36057954 36297946 36487954 36627936 37037667
            36997640 36867597 36537585 36257576 36137563 35897567
            35787958 35867981 35997974=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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