Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 19:27:14 ACUS03 KWNS 191926 SWODY3 SPC AC 191925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ....Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ...Jewell.. 06/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .