Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1368
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 18:54:16

ACUS11 KWNS 191854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191853=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-192000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...New Hampshire into western/northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191853Z - 192000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is likely this afternoon as widely scattered to
scattered storms move northeast. Wind damage and a brief tornado are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating has been greater in New Hampshire and
western Maine. Portions of northern Maine are beginning now
beginning to heat as low-level cloud cover erodes and the warm front
lifts into Quebec. Upstream convection has not deepened very
quickly, particularly in northeast New York and Vermont. The more
discrete activity in southeast New York into
Connecticut/Massachusetts has shown marginally more intense/deep
updrafts. Even with less than ideal thermodynamics, low-level lapse
rates have steepened where temperatures have risen into the 80s F
and stronger mid-level ascent continues to approach the Northeast.
The strongest storms will be capable damaging wind gusts. Low-level
shear is also sufficient for a brief tornado.

...Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6n2ZqwuDcS2WOcabff35z2DQUUHzXQbsE8lfpMkZyYDKO6BaY1c31vtAgYAPpaV5CSMzhUo0B=
NO4Zjzk5BXiWKKq8Co$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43187118 42817142 42867228 43537215 44587145 45047144
            46127020 46336996 46346956 46146922 45736940 45176981
            43477104 43187118=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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