Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 18:11:04

AWUS01 KWNH 191809
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ00=
0-KYZ000-200008-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians..Interior Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191808Z - 200008Z

Summary...Expanding coverage of brief but intense thunderstorms
with sub-hourly rainfall rates upwards of .50-1"/15 min could
cause isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Trends in visible satellite imagery area depict an
increasingly unstable PBL interspersed with intensifying clusters
of thunderstorms ahead an upper-trough and cold front over the OH
Valley.

While this activity organizes, a strengthening jet-streak over the
Interior Northeast is forecast to enhance southwesterly low-level
flow into the warm sector and yield 1.7-2" PWATs,  1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear across the region
over the next few hours. Accordingly, storms should intensify into
multicell clusters and supercells containing .5-1"/15 minute rain
rates embedded within linear segments along an ENE-SSW axis ahead
of the lee-trough and cold front -- refer to SPC MCD 1364 for the
latest on the severe threat with these storms.

While the scattered nature of the storms and progressive storm
motions should limit a prolonged flash flood threat, brief
training and repeating of these intense rates could easily breach
the low .25-1"/hr FFGs across the region. As such, the HREF and
REFS denote increasing probabilities of 1-3 HR FFG exceedance
beginning around 18-19z, which suggests an increasing risk of
isolated-scattered flash flooding going forward today.

Asherman=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Bdmotk_OzDU9y-IVlXOkYLaAYyrOO725xTqPhsSZYgycWLao7WHU6MKZnsv8wNSg7pF=
dM0CuarfZl7okdQdRZCJAbI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...GSP...JKL...
LWX...MRX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42997866 42497621 42227396 40077489 38377691=20
            36827942 35888163 36708295 39308143 42058012=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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