Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 15:21:50

AWUS01 KWNH 191521
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191850-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AR...North-Central MS...Western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191520Z - 191850Z

Summary...Periods of training and repeating thunderstorms within a
persistent MCS will maintain the threat of isolated flash flooding
for at least the next three hours.

Discussion...Regional radar highlights a persistent MCS containing
a forward propagating component across Eastern MS and
North-Central AL, with upwind development occurring further west
along a slow moving cold pool. The alignment of these cells was
leading to periods of repeating and training across the
highlighted area, with 1.5-2.6"/hr rainfall rates estimated within
the most intense cells over North-Central MS.

The development of new cells upstream is likely tied to a
confluent low-level regime in the upwind portion of the cold pool
interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass characterized
by 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE (and minimal CIN), 1.8-1.9" PWATs, and
20-25 kts of effective shear to support new development of loosely
organized cells capable of continued 1.5-2.5"/hr rates.=20=20=20=20
Both the HREF and REFS suggest this training and repeating
activity will continue for at the next three hours -- albeit with
some uncertainty regarding the persistence owing to how CAMs have
struggled with the cold pool. However, the HREF and REFS suggest
localized amounts of 2-3 inches remain possible through 18z, which
could locally breach FFGs in the region and cause isolated flash
flooding.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5mFJOs-EveGwM4s_VAQ7n4yIwmDh1ab-i84SQ1MZp7fF9Sg21bRODP--wA9DlvNRKU2I=
Or2tiZdo-e8JA9Tkzu1Re5g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34649171 34338950 33968828 33218711 32458722=20
            32168815 32488964 33669159=20

=3D =3D =3D
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