Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1360
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 04:10:21

ACUS11 KWNS 190408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190408=20
MOZ000-190545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190408Z - 190545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may occur
over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An embedded 500 mb impulse is overspreading MO,
contributing to locally higher deep-layer shear (e.g. 40+ kts of
effective bulk shear per 03Z mesoanalysis), as well as deep-layer
ascent. As such, a few transient supercells have developed, with
MRMS mosaic radar data suggesting that some of these storms are
producing hail that is approaching severe limits. Mid-level lapse
rates are not particularly steep, as shown by the 00Z SGF observed
soundings, which depicts near 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a
stabilizing boundary layer. While an instance or two of 1+ inch
diameter hail may be observed, the aforementioned tall/thin CAPE
(with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and modest deep-layer shear suggest
that severe hail should be overall isolated. As such, a WW issuance
is not expected.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4VW0BlZfgYTpqy9HSGDMbxUn06wSlGo-pQo0UXC7Qp1ZKprW6LEfVitWhZeVlkaph56sjImKY=
kjCKKMQyJlnEYG79ho$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37959434 38589392 38979245 38769109 38219066 37589103
            37339210 37379301 37569393 37959434=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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