Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1357
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 19 2025 01:19:10

ACUS11 KWNS 190119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190118=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
and western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 190118Z - 190245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain a concern with the advancing squall
line, with a few severe gusts still possible, especially with the
apex of the line.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to advance eastward with a history of
strong to severe wind gusts, particularly with the apex of a bowing
segment entering the Cleveland metropolitan area. The squall line
continues to advance eastward amid a warm boundary layer
(characterized by 80 F surface temperatures beneath 6+ C/km
low-level lapse rates). Buoyancy is waning, suggesting that an
overall decrease in severe potential is expected. However, in the
near term, strong to severe wind gusts remain a threat. The best
chance for additional severe gusts remain with the apex of a bowing
segment within the line, which is traversing the Lake Erie
shoreline. Here, 40 kts of effective bulk shear exists, with shear
vectors oriented roughly normal to the bowing line.

...Squitieri.. 06/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-m2qZL0o4rH2yQIsTmgpaVnkLKPjeEZB1b3XeBMZTQ6gftTVnJCSL6wqJ5Puy-9hALNIEwaJa=
7pOGdh15tAV5TkObi8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   38658284 40008221 41588150 41858113 42008044 41568000
            40777975 39747995 38738064 38308113 38218161 38158215
            38238259 38658284=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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