Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1352
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 18 2025 22:04:36

ACUS11 KWNS 182204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182203=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182203Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally
severe wind gusts may accompany the strongest storms into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
spreading southeastward across parts of western and central ND --
ahead of a subtle midlevel impulse evident in the latest water-vapor
loops. As around 35 kt of midlevel westerly flow (per regional VWP)
accompanying this feature overspreads steep deep-layer lapse rates
across the area, a couple loosely organized clusters will be
possible. Marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts (around 60
mph) will be possible with the stronger clusters that evolve into
this evening.

...Weinman/Smith.. 06/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8v801sA94McfcTPAnGNLD1jER7HR4OvqHxwvNkZx8QxuUOl_FoLIqgocOkoQCnOA1VicFsTJt=
E2nXJopUZSpZd2Sqvo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   46820314 47590395 48400405 48880392 49060348 49060155
            48470029 47819974 47299967 46769983 46270031 46020103
            46170203 46820314=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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