Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1351
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 18 2025 20:11:01

ACUS11 KWNS 182009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182008=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...southern IN...far northern KY/southwest OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...435...

Valid 182008Z - 182145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434, 435 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and a couple tornadoes remain possible with
the southern portion of a QLCS and broken convection to its south.
Downstream watch issuance will be likely east of WWs 434/435 by
early evening.

DISCUSSION...The slower-moving but yet progressive southern-portion
of the QLCS will likely spread across southern IN into early
evening. More broken, semi-discrete convection persists to its south
and these cells may help refine its southern edge along the IN/KY
border. The IND VWP indicates still adequate low-level SRH for a
supercell tornado. Most cells have struggled to more deeply
intensify despite the ample buoyancy, likely due to development
ahead of the weak surface front amid marginal mid-level lapse rates
and the MCV tracking towards northern IN. Sporadic severe wind gusts
should remain the primary hazard.

...Grams.. 06/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6AORdiaiWcUV8hjRaZ1_WLz9l1hSGU6jTiU0-FF64Hkok0vmawZIcpai9r0i7ZJ3Fu7q-QUPr=
ZAYs921xydBfus4vYg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39758417 38938475 37998593 37848651 37948750 38268774
            39098697 39838677 40198649 40288570 40218442 39758417=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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