Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1347
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 18 2025 18:47:41

ACUS11 KWNS 181845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181844=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...the Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181844Z - 182015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An additional watch issuance is expected to the south of
WWs 432/434 across the Lower Ohio Valley through western Kentucky.
Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail
are the likely hazards.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convection has been building across southeast
IL ahead of a weak cold front in southeast MO. VWP data from PAH has
begun to become veered in the low-levels, but adequate 0-1 km SRH
exists for low-level rotation amid a very moist and unstable air
mass. Convection should continue to increase in a
southwest/northeast orientation across the Lower OH Valley through
the rest of the afternoon. This should result in more parallel
alignment to the deep-layer shear vector. Sporadic damaging winds
will probably be the overarching threat, but a tornado or two will
be possible, especially with northward extent in southern IN.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5s46EpaELNi1zhchw1oIE2FG6eKTmhRsPFF6IhI1C02REMPyk4dny5rQ2vDvRHT8vjwcKLg0n=
qZQoVb1zSWyn6hFipI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37998828 38408731 38468637 38278589 37648598 37178611
            36868691 36638794 36438923 36728939 37458897 37998828=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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