Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1337
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 22:46:00

ACUS11 KWNS 172244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172244=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into
far southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172244Z - 180045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will likely accompany any high-based
thunderstorms that can initiate. Storm development/coverage is
uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated
high-based cumulus developing along a dryline extending across the
TX South Plains. Radar data from LBB also shows continued attempts
at convective initiation within the zone of low-level ascent. If a
couple storms can develop within this corridor, a deeply mixed
boundary layer (characterized by an inverted-V sounding) and
sufficient instability would promote severe downbursts (and possibly
some severe hail) with any sustained high-based storms. Storm
development/sustenance and overall coverage is somewhat uncertain,
though trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-_vUb2y3y3F7kbTUZUgRPTSVgSCQgDJCySpn9BJDA7dG1HfRAYjIws8cW7NgxsMRmhgkOEk8C=
D8LrTJYvaOkkGewDf0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35110053 35130007 35009966 34619949 34239955 33320133
            33350190 33840214 34130202 35110053=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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