Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1335
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 21:43:56

ACUS11 KWNS 172143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172143=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into far
north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...

Valid 172143Z - 172315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.

SUMMARY...Parts of south-central Kansas is the most favorable
corridor for a couple supercell tornadoes during the next couple
hours -- within Tornado Watch 429.

DISCUSSION...A semi-discrete supercell is evolving just north of a
remnant outflow boundary intersection over far south-central KS this
afternoon. Along and north of the boundary, an earlier sheltered
boundary layer (with backed easterly surface winds) has destabilized
substantially, with temperatures in the lower/middle 80s amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints. This strongly unstable surface-based air,
combined with around 50 kt of effective shear, will favor
intensification of the ongoing supercell and additional cells that
develop on its flanks. Additionally, a large clockwise-curved
hodograph (200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) per earlier VWP data and
mesoanalysis will support a couple supercell tornadoes with any
sustained supercells in this corridor over the next couple hours.

...Weinman.. 06/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9mHAcB6vi7rGHkRCvQLOHZtnorBOTiYEbt8XN38xWLYVKkl3f3HyKFh7BRE_aPyPYRZO-ljsu=
6BHDtmqN4V7cC-8W5M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36929757 37209821 37399820 37539802 37619737 37539672
            37349642 36929648 36859695 36929757=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.