Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 18:35:51 AWUS01 KWNH 171835 FFGMPD OKZ000-KSZ000-180015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Adj. Far Northern Oklahoma... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171835Z - 180015Z SUMMARY...Current training band of elevated cells likely to give way to stronger, slightly more progressive convective development further southwest that will track through areas saturated overnight resulting in 2-3" totals and possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...In the wake of this morning's MCS, the overall flow field is muddled and trying to refocus on rapid surface to low level cyclogenesis across SW Kansas into the TX/OK Panhandles, with very strong backed surface to 850mb flow across much of western OK into south-central SW KS. However, from about 800-700mb solid south to southwesterly flow at 30-40kts becomes strongly confluent/convergent along the former rear-inflow jet (arrow to the bow) of the dying MCS. Modified 12z soundings suggest modest remaining mid-level lapse rates to support MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg for those convective cells. CIRA LPW shows a narrow band of enhanced moisture in the 850-700mb layer to suggest moisture flux is also supportive of efficient rainfall production/moisture loading for rates of 1.5-2"/hr (given deep layer TPW is over 1.75, and saturated in the sub-cloud layer to limit evaporative loss). Currently, favorable orientation of flow from 700-400mb is parallel to the CAPE gradient and convergence axis to support some slow eastward propagation for repeating/training; though trends in WV and Visible animations (along with VWP) suggests this will remain in the very short-term (about 1-2 hrs) as digging outflow/roll cloud further west is starting to become more orthogonal in the 925-850mb layer. 17z WoFS run suggests 1.5-3" totals along the training axis, utilizing the 50th-90th percentiles, which appears reasonable. Though daily totals are already over 5" per backyard obs in McPherson, KS. Additionally, the dry line appears to be bulging northeastward into NW OK further strengthening low level moisture convergence along the enhanced instability axis along the KS/OK boarder with MLCAPEs nearing 3000 J/kg (through still strongly capped). As such additional development on this roll cloud/convergence band will allow for additional development southwest of the mid-level rear-inflow band in central to eastern KS. Eventually, these stronger/broader rotating updrafts having increased moisture convergence to support 2-2.5"/hr rates (along with larger hail...see SPC MCDs for additional details) toward 23-00z and in proximity to the heavy rainfall axis from last evening's MCS generally near/along I-135/35. Similarly WoFS totals of 1-3" are possible quickly across south-central KS into the eastern Flint Hills by 00z, which is agreeable with the HRRR and at least the axis/evolutionary path of the RRFS, providing some additional confidence.=20 All considering, local totals of 3" in 2-3hrs may lead to possible localized flash flooding, though if intersecting with Wichita metro; potential significantly increases given expected 2"+ rates. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ieIGhXItnM0_1E3AiiepZWI1jZd34gTUqftVwm-TQx9MWhnC8VhBS0QVqQWGWKG55-r= wGCU3La_p4WesGjNIg3w6bc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38709779 38469636 37809488 36949467 36619510=20 36599612 36689740 36879858 37029937 37369992=20 37849986 38459873=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .