Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 16:09:36

ACUS11 KWNS 171609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171608=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-171815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...the Front Range of CO and far southeast WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 171608Z - 171815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Initially isolated storms along I-70 in east-central
Colorado will pose a risk for severe hail. More widespread storms
are expected to form along the Front Range by early afternoon with a
primary threat of large to very large hail. A watch issuance is
likely, with some uncertainty on timing.

DISCUSSION...Convection has formed early atop the pervasive stratus
deck across east-central/southeast CO, with more pronounced
insolation in a confined wedge to its north across northeast CO.
While the boundary layer is cool and still somewhat stable, a risk
for severe hail may develop with this localized area of storms given
sufficient deep-layer shear.=20

The pervasive stratus is indicative of the seasonably moist air mass
banked against the southern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest only
modest boundary-layer heating is needed for uncapped parcels, with
most 12Z guidance indicative of scattered to widespread storms along
the Front Range by early afternoon. With weak low-level shear,
overall setup should be favorable for large to very large hail
potential across the I-25 corridor. Very large hail appears more
probable across the southern portion of the region where effective
bulk shear should be maximized across the COS/PUB vicinity.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7V1fEqznJGuV2W7Cdi2BdvnmBoa2PERCsYZl1I-pW6rJ6lrATB-ty1QOuWWQED-Q29KLhmtgF=
qeGsk7cqUfrajrXefM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39430310 38730310 37550395 37760487 38340517 38870522
            39940524 40360532 40660536 41110529 41710484 41760447
            41670416 41030400 39430310=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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