Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1323
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 02:27:48

ACUS11 KWNS 170226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170225=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Nebraska into north-central
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

Valid 170225Z - 170400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) is becoming the
primary concern in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424.

DISCUSSION...An east/west-oriented convective line has become
increasingly organized across parts of central NE as it moves slowly
southward. Meanwhile, additional storms are evolving
east-northeastward toward the evolving MCS from southwest NE and
northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear,
very steep deep-layer lapse rates and related strong surface-based
instability (sampled by the 00Z DDC sounding), coupled with a 35-kt
southerly low-level jet (per regional VWP), should favor scattered
severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) as storms continue drifting
southward and begin merging.

...Weinman.. 06/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_01xA6S7PCLEoWgkSog24r22kX7CUYDJ9hsfI2sWuY6javyry9UAnYeCVB4-iTr6_c9bhN5Lt=
_KAXOy_61DleqJaRJo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41179991 41349890 41359793 41069705 40669687 40169711
            39909820 39670035 39810085 40110123 40380124 40710101
            41179991=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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