Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1321
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 17 2025 00:21:40

ACUS11 KWNS 170020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170019=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-170145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwestern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

Valid 170019Z - 170145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue spreading eastward
across parts of northwestern Wisconsin. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible extension of Tornado Watch 423.

DISCUSSION...Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms is
tracking eastward at around 35-40 kt, with occasional bowing
structures evident. The primary concern with this activity continues
to be damaging wind gusts, though an embedded tornado cannot be
ruled out, given a 30-kt low-level jet and related enhanced
low-level shear. As these storms continue eastward toward the
eastern edge of Tornado Watch 423, they will encounter weaker
instability and gradually increasing nocturnal boundary-layer
stability. However, the focused and strengthening low-level jet may
compensate for this, and support a continued severe risk across
parts of northwestern WI. Convective trends are being monitored for
a possible eastward extension of Tornado Watch 423.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7xnqKU3Cl6KfnWOn-xWLIT9wH5KcFfeOYb0hpNl4jdO2fqylDl-oyllxOjk4dpmvazRARBDiI=
94R0NoE228CXOJEcIY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46399232 46469191 46479127 46349065 45859028 45189056
            44879106 44999241 45379324 45599332 45969307 46399232=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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