Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 16 2025 23:31:11

AWUS01 KWNH 162331
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162330Z - 170530Z

SUMMARY...Additional scattered to broken bands of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to promote a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding going through the remainder of
the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows an elongated and generally disorganized axis of
showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of the Mid-South into
the OH Valley. Some of the cooler convective tops over the last
hour have been noted over areas of central and western KY,
northwest TN, and parts of eastern AR where there has been a tad
more low-level convergence along with a favorable thermodynamic
environment for renewed rounds of convection.

MLCAPE values more broadly across the region are generally still
on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and the column remains very
moist with PWs locally near or over 2 inches. For many areas, that
is in the 90th percentile of climatology, and this has helped
foster heavy rainfall rates with some of the bands of convection
over the last few hours.

The pattern across the region in the low-levels remains generally
convergent along and south of a quasi-stationary front which also
involves a wave of low pressure over northwest AR. However, aloft
there is an elongated axis of mid-level vort energy which extends
from the Lower MS Valley northeastward into the Lower OH Valley.
Some modest deeper layer ascent is associated with this energy,
and a combination of this with the front and also the
moist/unstable boundary layer regime should support a continuation
of scattered to broken bands of convection at least through the
late-evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms will still be capable of
reaching 2 inches/hour, and with some localized pockets of
cell-training, some of the additional rainfall totals going
through midnight may reach 2 to 4 inches.

Some additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will
be possible as a result, and especially with the moist antecedent
conditions and local urban sensitivities.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4UgKdw8ohWSk-UqdNqY5cb06hVa2eoCIHcEo8JLMb0jiMVS3JHpJU7KCJTV9uOwhfV5N=
TRMnwWn-r5dxPPjmTfyBmxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38438446 37528430 36668653 35398888 33909085=20
            34239171 36329047 37448897 38248681=20

=3D =3D =3D
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