Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1318 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 16 2025 23:15:33 ACUS11 KWNS 162313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162312=20 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-170045- Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424... Valid 162312Z - 170045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing/intensifying across northeast Colorado. Isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two will be possible. However, the isolated nature of the threat should preclude a new watch. DISCUSSION...Two areas of isolated severe thunderstorms have developed across northeast Colorado to the west and southwest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424. These storms are developing along an instability gradient stretching arcing from west-central Kansas northwest toward higher terrain of south-central Wyoming. Forecast soundings across the region show a highly sheared environment, but the hodograph is structured such that storm motions will be quite slow unless driving by internal thunderstorm dynamics such as cold pool development. Given the strong shear, however, supercell or supercell-like structures will be possible with the ongoing (or additional) thunderstorms. A brief tornado could not be ruled out due to vorticity stretching beneath a rotating thunderstorm's updraft. A tornado was recently reported in Kit Carson County. Despite effective-layer shear that is supported of updraft organization and most-unstable CAPE sufficient for severe thunderstorms, the overall isolated nature of the current storms would tend to preclude the need for an additional watch. Additionally, with visible satellite imagery not showing additional severe-caliber convection being imminent, a new watch is not currently under consideration. However, trends will be monitored in case local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 becomes necessary. ...Marsh.. 06/16/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lWYsm0Ywqw8xcWw5r4AItjKsv3mBJGRAlHOXotmAQCNT1ovD7Bg44IvE9THmUs98a927jkYO= DkqgiRfoeS4xWaq964$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38340302 40190545 41030508 41000265 40460266 40430201 38510206 38340302=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .