Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1316
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 16 2025 22:22:46

ACUS11 KWNS 162222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162222=20
MNZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

Valid 162222Z - 162315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

SUMMARY...A southward extension of Tornado Watch 423 into
south-central Minnesota may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the
southward-extending cold front in south-central MN -- south of
Tornado Watch 423. A warm/moist air mass is in place ahead of these
evolving storms, with around 40 kt of effective shear (oriented
perpendicular to the front) and modest low-level hodograph curvature
(per VWP and mesoanalysis data). This should support an uptick in
convective intensity, with a couple discrete supercells possible.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will be possible with this
activity. Therefore, a local southward extension of Tornado Watch
423 may be warranted.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 06/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5L1CbVQuHCYR7ygWl7Gm7xyGenLkzqL1QQAEWk6kKdqjIQZkT0ByqpZCloI51Jym8DrE4fhCC=
3SH_TsBVTeqDnIUSDo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON   44439479 44879462 44969426 44819378 44419363 43789380
            43619410 43659472 44129480 44439479=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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