Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 16 2025 22:01:54 AWUS01 KWNH 162201 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-170300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0462 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WV...Southwest VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 162200Z - 170300Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates are likely to result in at least scattered areas of flash flooding going through the evening hours. Some locally significant and life-threatening impacts are possible near areas of higher terrain. DISCUSSION...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of slow-moving, but very efficient shower and thunderstorm activity impacting portions of southeast WV on down through southwest VA with an emphasis on some of the higher terrain of the central Appalachians, the adjacent Piedmont, and especially the Blue Ridge. A stationary front remains draped up against the eastern slopes of the higher terrain, with very moist low-level easterly flow aiming into the Blue Ridge. This combined with convection forming near and just west of the front within the instability pool over the higher terrain of central Appalachians is promoting a setup capable of yielding locally enhanced rainfall totals across the upslope areas of southeast WV and southwest VA. MLCAPE values over central and southern WV remain on the order of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, but PWs are locally near 2 inches, and the CIRA-ALPW data shows notably concentrated moisture in the 850/700 mb layer where much of the stronger cloud-bearing ascent will be situated. Some of the 12Z HREF guidance and recent RRFS solutions are quite wet this evening, and support some slow-moving convective cells potentially anchoring themselves near the upslope areas of the Blue Ridge over the next few hours. Rainfall rates with the stronger ongoing storms are already as high as 2.5 inches/hour, and storms will continue to be capable of yielding these rates given the very moist/tropical vertical column that is in place. Given the concerns for slow-moving and orographically aided convection this evening near the front and the adjacent terrain, some rainfall totals may reach 3 to 5+ inches. This will likely result in at least scattered areas of flash flooding, with potential for locally considerable and life-threatening impacts given the potential for enhanced terrain-driven runoff and channeled flow away from the terrain. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mY4DF4_oVCR7ZupSOG0dnEhaCh-8JVkHjvni8Z0c1f7GSvczk5zc3p65mlGKW4zmCfe= pgP-I_fvUDAUY-hfWq2beqs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 38697975 38607937 38437919 38117915 37477923=20 36647932 36447998 36628073 37078096 37728090=20 38178064 38578021=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .