Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 16 2025 20:28:12

AWUS01 KWNH 162026
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162025Z - 170100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates over the next few hours may expand a bit more in coverage
and pose concerns for isolated areas of flash flooding, and
especially around the more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with regional radar data shows pockets of slow-moving and
heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
southeast TX and into far southwest LA. The activity is focusing
along a convergence axis inland of the upper TX coast and out
ahead of some weak shortwave energy advancing gradually into
eastern TX.

MLCAPE values over the region are locally as high as 3500 J/kg
with PWs of around 2 inches, and this will be set the stage for
some expansion of convection over the next few hours across
especially southeast TX which may include the broader Houston
metropolitan area.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance both support some localized
concentrations of slow-moving convective cells going through the
late-afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall rates are
expected to be as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, with some
potential for localized storm totals by early this evening to be 3
to 4+ inches.

Some low to moderate probabilities (20 to 50 percent) of exceeding
the 3-hour FFG are noted in the HREF and REFS guidance suites, and
this suggests there may be at least an isolated concern for some
flash flooding which in this case would primarily be a concern for
the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-zw7MEO2muxVNT9xooq1-HD4hwaRR_XVj5LMxt6dusdsRLhjVyTYBf7HP1CK-Jd7LFkn=
Vqvk9kZelIiRKtVAF5Cx7tc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30919460 30739351 29939315 29649414 29229511=20
            29029583 29269644 29799663 30269626 30619551=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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