Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 22:52:59

AWUS01 KWNH 152252
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-160150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Northern VA...D.C....Southern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152250Z - 160150Z

SUMMARY...Very efficient shower activity with locally high
rainfall rates may cause some flash flooding concerns across
portions of northern VA, D.C and southern MD over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a few clusters of heavy shower
activity beginning to impact areas of northern VA and southern MD
along with areas just south of Washington D.C. The convection
which is very efficient in nature with relatively warm tops and is
embedded within a very moist vertical column with PWs of 1.8 to 2
inches.

There is some weak elevated instability (MUCAPE values of 500+
J/kg) along with some isentropic ascent north of a stationary
front and ahead of the upstream shortwave energy over the central
Appalachians helping to facilitate this activity. Rainfall rates
based on MRMS data are upwards of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with this
convection.

Given these high rates and the slow cell-motions, some near-term
totals over the next few hours may reach 3 to 4 inches. Given the
generally wet antecedent conditions and urban sensitivities around
the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, some flash flooding will
certainly be a concern.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_5xad8J1EShpTiUsN_juiFnSmiX9zHxaIvLAcUv8sQ1unVjYX14jYwIPlmusOe3M2_Co=
9MCOq7mtbUoIDvOBZUMoIjw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39207817 39107730 38707651 38187647 37857686=20
            37867715 38247787 38347849 38867857 39117856=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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