Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 22:07:28

AWUS01 KWNH 152207
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-160205-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152205Z - 160205Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally anchored thunderstorms across
portions of southeast NM and southwest TX will continue for at
least a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows slow-moving and
locally anchored cold-topped thunderstorms across areas of
southeast NM and southwest TX, with the convection focusing near
some of the higher terrain generally southeast of the Sacramento
Mountains. Moist and unstable low-level flow near terrain will
tend to favor this activity over the few hours with some potential
for this convection to organize upscale a bit more and then
advance east potentially into adjacent areas of the far southern
High Plains.

Rainfall rates with these storms are expected to be high, and
reaching as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour. The slow cell-motions and
concerns for a few cell-mergers over the next couple of hours will
support some isolated 3 to 4+ inch totals.

Very little hires model guidance is properly handling the current
activity, but the latest satellite and radar trends, especially
with the level of recent cloud-top cooling suggests some
persistence of the activity at least for a few more hours. Some
areas of flash flooding will be possible with these cells given
their slow movement and expected rainfall rates.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8j3vVNgSw1rWzjc_YGSFFZEET3eVW8HIJwOhu-QfZCevywGMfzxtIGE6LdoHx46-8wuE=
AgjwhVMsSfsRSvpB1akMWMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34600458 33860355 31910318 30440369 30130465=20
            30540557 31320556 32330545 33230579 34360591=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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