Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 21:06:26 AWUS01 KWNH 152106 FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-160300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0448 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 505 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152105Z - 160300Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening across portions of the upper OH Valley and especially the central Appalachians. Numerous areas of flash flooding, including pockets of considerable to locally catastrophic impacts will continue over the next several hours. This is a life-threatening situation. DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-IR satellite imagery along with radar imagery shows numerous areas of slow-moving and heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting southwest PA through southeast OH, eastern KY and large areas of WV, with this activity continuing to advance downstream into areas of western VA to the east of the Appalachians. The activity continues to be focused in connection with a slow-moving low to mid-level low center and trough drifting east across the central Appalachians which is also interacting with proximity of a stationary front. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass remains focused over the region, with PWs in the 90th to 95th percentile of climatology, and MLCAPE values still ranging in between 1000 to 1500 J/kg with the aid of additional boundary layer heating. Additional rounds of slow-moving and heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next several hours as cyclonic low to mid-level flow coupled with orographic ascent over the higher terrain of southwest PA down through central WV works to provide ascent. Locally focused areas of convergence near the front will also be a key facilitator for additional rounds of convection in the near-term. The latest HRRR/RRFS guidance supports up to an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated heavier amounts not out of the question given the very moist/unstable environment and orographic nature to a lot of the shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous areas of flash flooding are already ongoing, and will continue into the evening hours, including pockets of considerable to locally catastrophic impacts. This life-threatening situation is expected to continue in the near-term. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9biiTJiVFRCvJBAwPYkMwwRhj8k04tlZc2ENXK-BWECgUDgqMpaIBjnH8LVqxW_XTfvq= AK3WQ7PRjE-DyQ3T3SkNNdY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX... RNK... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 40877954 40537900 39527877 38547863 37787972=20 37398062 37168242 37278404 37718457 38468439=20 39218314 39978181 40788057=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .