Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 20:19:30

AWUS01 KWNH 152019
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-160117-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152017Z - 160117Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding is expected this afternoon
across southeast Texas into western Louisiana with high
instability and moisture resulting in intense rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Recent SPC mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE upwards of
4000 j/kg and PWs as high as 2.2" over southeast TX into LA. This
environment will be capable of very high rainfall rates likely
resulting in an isolated flash flood risk this afternoon. Wind
fields and shear are relatively weak, suggesting slow cell
motions, but also mostly a pulse storm mode. This pulse nature of
convection should overall limit the duration of heavier rainfall
rates. However, an outflow boundary diving southward across the
area should act as a focus for cell mergers over the next few
hours, locally increasing duration and rainfall totals. Recent
HRRR runs support localized totals over 3", and neighborhood
probabilities of exceeding 3" from the 12z HREF are 40-60%.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and elevated streamflows over
most of this region would expect this rainfall to result in at
least an isolated flash flood threat over the next several hours.
Hourly rainfall of 2-3" appears probable in spots as the outflow
drives cell mergers within the aforementioned highly unstable and
moist airmass. The threat will be relatively short lived however,
as the southward moving outflow should help clear things out from
north to south by this evening.

Chenard

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4s2Csqn1qPzQ7ibWxoAzc0PA8Uf_nfNVrIocoY7M_pRBzl_6VQ2-4t7PRfEkQFtYykSF=
lLrE5ldns0c8Jz50-PaCgns$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   32609459 32029380 31299329 30209352 29809439=20
            29449531 29239635 28569725 28719773 29299793=20
            30289800 30799742 31089664 31969575 32519533=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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