Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 20:04:47

AWUS01 KWNH 152003
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-160202-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southern MO...Central and Northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152002Z - 160202Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates and
slow cell-motions will pose a notable threat for scattered areas
of flash flooding going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
an expanding CU/TCU field across central and northern AR and areas
of southern MO to the south of a band of broken showers and
thunderstorms that areas already impacting portions of
south-central MO to the north and east of Springfield. The
convection is being strongly influenced by deep layer cyclonic=20
flow associated with a nearly stationary low to mid-level low
center over far northeast OK.

This energy is also entangled along a quasi-stationary frontal
zone and over the next few hours will be interacting with a
moderately buoyant airmass pooled along it characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Some of the greater instability is
focused across central AR and with the cyclonic low to mid-level
flow, there should be a gradual expansion of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours down into northern and
central AR.

Rainfall rates with the convection should be capable of reaching
1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on the 12Z HREF guidance, and with
slow cell-motions going into the evening hours, there may be some
localized storm totals of 3 to 4+ inches. In fact, recent HRRR
guidance suggests some spotty 5 inch amounts may be possible
across central AR early this evening from some areas of
cell-training that occur.

These rainfall amounts on top of moist antecedent conditions and
near areas of more sensitive/rugged terrain involving portions of
the Ozark Plateau will generally favor concerns for scattered
areas of flash flooding. There also may be a notable urban flash
flood threat if the convection can build far enough south and get
into areas from Batesville on down through Little Rock and Hot
Springs.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!49IBRrXnlptiXOf6M8z-UI4Q9Yb11Lnfg5Groj9n4L3EQnYRyLLLq27oT9EZ4hdb38lO=
l7HA2L35Lk6zZrHv2as7Jho$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38169290 37759141 36599068 34759144 33869294=20
            33819418 34719434 36359337 37729382=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.