Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1301
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 18:58:34

ACUS11 KWNS 151858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151858=20
TXZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151858Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to marginally severe gusts are possible this
afternoon. A few damaging downbursts are possible as outflow
boundaries collide.

DISCUSSION...As the outflow from an earlier MCS continues into a
strongly buoyant airmass in central Texas, a few strong to
near-severe gusts have been measures from San Saba to Killeen and
Waco (all 40-49 kts). Convection from the Gulf breeze front has also
been propagating northward this afternoon. Given the low-level lapse
rates and a signature for a localized 50+ kt winds on KGRK velocity
data, additional strong to marginally severe gusts may still occur.
There also will be some potential for strong to near-severe
downburst winds as the remnant MCS outflow collides with outflow
from Gulf breeze convection within the next couple hours.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_CqtZrg5G1_eX4j4SVmIoDaGzUNZM8tjLf97Y1pB2zq_FRd7pNzld8HofzkkOVyxndbu7Ql3h=
bSXPDjaKj_qgeRpTFw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30279888 30629920 31209955 31419927 31429855 31489755
            32129652 32149596 31699545 31159567 30529654 30179796
            30139852 30279888=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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