Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 18:28:21 AWUS01 KWNH 151826 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-160025- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0444 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 151825Z - 160025Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours across central to southeast VA and into northeast NC. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions will promote excessive rainfall totals and a likelihood for scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding going through early this evening. Considerable urban flash flooding with life-threatening impacts will be possible. DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-IR satellite imagery shows cooling convective tops over central WV through much of western VA as a very slow-moving mid-level shortwave trough advances east across the central Appalachians. Diurnal heating and resultant boundary layer destabilization is well underway ahead of this energy in vicinity of a well-defined stationary front draped from eastern WV down through southeast VA. MLCAPE values are already upwards of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg across central to southeast VA and through much of central to northeast NC. The airmass is also very moist across the region with PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, and the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD, KRNK and KGSO all showed very moist vertical columns with the KRNK and KGSO soundings in particular showing tally, skinny CAPE profiles. This once again suggests a highly efficient environment with extreme rainfall rate potential. Satellite imagery is showing a substantial amount of solar insolation ongoing on across south-central to southeast VA to the south of the front, and additional boundary layer destabilization is expected to couple with a combination of frontal convergence, and weak DPVA for the development and expansion of convection=20 through the afternoon and early evening hours. Additionally, satellite and surface observations suggest that there may be a weak wave of low pressure developing along the front over south-central VA, and this may further yield a low-level focus for more concentrated/stronger convection over the next few hours. The latest 12Z HREF/06Z REFS guidance, along with the early-afternoon 17Z/1730Z WoFS guidance all suggest very high rainfall rate potential with 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates possible with the stronger storms. The generally slow cell-motions and cell-merger concerns will foster concerns for some rainfall totals to reach 3 to 5+ inches going through 00Z (8pm EDT). Given the rainfall rates/totals, and sensitive antecedent conditions, scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are generally expected over the next several hours. Considerable urban flash flooding will be possible, including significant to life-threatening impacts should these heavier rains materialize over the urban corridors and especially from Richmond to Petersburg over into the Hampton Roads vicinity. Areas of northeast NC from Roanoke Rapids to Elizabeth City also should be closely monitored for urban flash flooding concerns. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5AeCyIA4uZG8s0hyZyIhvidQnkyawsPHJ4eM3uI0tAWUCX9FxsYLVy7bcKizF2MHwPWP= l-xLKwgoaL191sSrXbb6Sbk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 38257797 37997749 37307635 36697576 36047563=20 35507609 35547702 36087835 36377930 36668034=20 37288034 37807967 38227882=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .