Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 17:37:36

AWUS01 KWNH 151737
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151736Z - 152036Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection has materialized
north through northwest of Springfield, MO with local 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates. Some potential exists for this band to persist
for multiple hours, posing a flash flood threat.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, an east-to-west oriented
band of deeper convection has organized just east of an MCV center
near the KS/OK/MO border region.  This band was also collocated
with weak surface convergence over the region, with low-level
southerlies over most of the Missouri Ozarks veering to easterly
low-level flow across central/west-central Missouri.  1500 J/kg
SBCAPE values and 1.6 inch PW values were promoting heavier rain
rates with deeper convection along this confluence axis.  These
rates were approaching local FFG thresholds near 1.5 inch/hr -
suggestive of an increasing flash flood threat in the short term.

Over the next 2-3 hours, this band should move slowly, with local
influences from cold pool generation playing a key role in the
ultimate evolution of the band.  Localized 3 inch rainfall totals
cannot be completely ruled out - especially where rainfall is most
persistent.  These totals should result in a few instances of
flash flooding especially in sensitive/low spots.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6nRn8jNE5BjAYQE6gQPnoZsph-G_B88ugHHWiXcVxzON6ITozYkpiTwYSDx0Vl63GJZ7=
DkmDXhdLT3OT-8pR75gErXU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38219328 38089169 37509136 36909294 36759472=20
            37109548 37739507 38019455=20

=3D =3D =3D
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