Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 15:38:23

AWUS01 KWNH 151537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-152133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southwestern
Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151533Z - 152133Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
today while producing spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the
discussion area.  These rates will support scattered flash
flooding - especially across the central Appalachians - through
22Z/6p EDT.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates sufficient
destabilization across the discussion area to support deepening
convection that was expanding in coverage.  Mesoanalyses suggest
that the convection was surface-based and in an environment
characterized by 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.8 inch PW values,
supporting efficient rain rates with this activity.  These cells
were moving very slowly eastward - perhaps slowest across
southwestern Pennsylvania amid a minimum in wind fields aloft.=20
Slow cell movement was already allowing for a few spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to develop just south of Charleston, WV over
the past hour.

Ongoing convective trends are expected to continue through the
afternoon, with pockets of insolation/destabilization aiding in
sustained thunderstorm development amid weak vorticity maxima
traversing the region aloft.  The combination of weak low-level
flow against central Appalachian terrain and a stationary boundary
extending from southwestern Pennsylvania (Greensburg) southward
through western Virginia (near Charlottesville) should also serve
as an additional focus for convective development and persistent
heavy rainfall.  FFG thresholds happen to be lowest near the
aforementioned boundary (<1 inch/hr), though instances of
exceedence can be expected areawide in several locales through 22Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6JyBNWc_hqpvLo0oa2psanCcsU3oRrPTLv61DfO0x6UAhOhTOYfJCglkR8UoLMNK1dOl=
r2UojUVRz-YfBTlXGsttGeA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40557901 40087839 39057800 38247800 37677842=20
            37387950 36918209 37268354 37918311 38398230=20
            39418108 40258016=20

=3D =3D =3D
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