Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 12:46:22

AWUS01 KWNH 151246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-151644-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...southern Oklahoma, north through northwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151244Z - 151644Z

Summary...A couple of mature convective complexes were merging and
crossing the Red River of Oklahoma/Texas this morning.  Spots of
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should pose an isolated flash flood risk
that should progressively become more isolated with time.

Discussion...Recent mosaic imagery depicts a couple of merging
convective complexes - one along the Red River from near Wichita
Falls to near Durant, OK and another across far southwestern
Oklahoma and the southeast Texas Panhandle near Childress.  The
complexes have gained forward speed through the morning, although
several mergers have aided in 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates within both
complexes. These rain rates are generally lower than FFG
thresholds areawide, with the greatest potential for impactful
flooding existing in/near urban and sensitive locales over the
past couple of hours.

These general trends should continue to translate southward into
more of north/central Texas this morning.  20 kt southwesterly
850mb flow should continue to provide sufficient low-level shear
for MCS maintenance while 1.5+ inch PW values and 1000-2000 J/kg
of downstream MLCAPE supports robust, efficient updrafts.  Areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue with the complexes -
again falling generally below FFG and limiting the spatial extent
of flash flood potential to the most sensitive/urbanized spots.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!71y8DcbT55YApAgEdGP-Muc2DBNx-4TczWh5HFCPZeiagoaq7EDhEtdpIZnaHHabN4I9=
EL-szN4iVpunhmuN9XVW45E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35429905 34909730 34259641 32949623 32219664=20
            31739753 31909948 33100044 34530058 35409998=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.