Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 09:33:22 AWUS01 KWNH 150933 FFGMPD OKZ000-151330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 532 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Much of central OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 150930Z - 151330Z Summary...Additional localized 2-4" rainfall totals (at least partially overlapping with areas that have already seen 2-7" totals over past 7 hours) may contribute to continued isolated to scattered flash flooding. Discussion...A maturing MCS is continuing to produce healthy updrafts early this morning, as evidenced by persistent overshooting tops via GOES-East imagery and associated instantaneous rainfall rates as high as 3-5"/hr via MRMS estimates. This active convection is focused along the western and southern flanks of the established cold pool (which is highly pronounced on the 08z SPC RAP analysis surface thetaE plot), where ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg resides. Tropospheric moisture content remains impressive across this region (PWs of 1.4-1.8", near the 90th percentile per OUN sounding climatology), though the LLJ and associated moisture transport is beginning to wane. Convection continues to backbuild to the northwest, and a slow moving shortwave/MCV is providing 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear (which seems to be significantly contributing to updraft longevity, despite an associated MCS maintenance parameter of only 10-40% along the western flank of the system). While both the intensity of the MCS and the consistency of storm training has likely peaked with the waning LLJ and increased forward propagation of storms in the past hour, still expect some additional backbuilding and training to continue for 3-4 more hours. This favors at least some additional heavy rainfall for the greater OKC metro, where locally 2-3" of rainfall has already occurred with this system. Additional heavy rainfall may also continue to train to the north of OKC, where locally as much as 6-7" of rainfall has occurred over the past 6-7 hours. Additional localized totals of up to 2-4" may occur (per 06z HREF PMM QPF, as well as subsequent HRRR and experimental RRFS QPF). Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (particularly if these amounts occur over more sensitive areas, where locally considerable instances of flash flooding are possible). Churchill ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_nFpD58aOjjsRSk69s4yRBFv-O3nLWEV53RIPFykhvKDkADlUdMAMG6uR1soq2fwuyaA= OlrF2j_rJ3tIk4ZWnarF-PQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36959846 36809776 36599727 36319683 36009655=20 35709625 35389592 34729569 34369613 34039708=20 34049786 34379864 34779912 35059928 35739935=20 36339937 36939927=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .