Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1295
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 15 2025 04:47:02

ACUS11 KWNS 150446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150446=20
MTZ000-150615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Central into northeast MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...

Valid 150446Z - 150615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into the late
night.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing late this evening across
parts of central MT. While intensities have decreased somewhat from
the earlier severe hail producing storms, a storm has recently
intensified in Wheatland County. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
relatively strong effective shear (40-50 kt) will continue to
support occasionally organized storms late tonight, with a threat of
isolated hail and strong to severe gusts.=20

Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of the severe threat into
the overnight, though persistent convection within a sufficiently
unstable and sheared environment could support an isolated threat
eventually spreading into parts of northeast MT with time.

...Dean.. 06/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7JDLfCY6OCzUFjStUARbrBa9kPzKFplUMezoHBs67kSfxeyGakfPLSrtDNAK4H6v63_ExYjBn=
d9YsKTHFd4V8PBVBFk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46381070 47461026 48350840 48680655 48690525 48220500
            47310546 47070722 46311040 46381070=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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