Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1291
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 23:47:59

ACUS11 KWNS 142347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142347=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast
SD...northwest/north-central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142347Z - 150145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may persist through mid
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a
quasi-stationary surface front from northeast NE/southeast SD into
northwest IA. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) is
in place along/south of the front, though deep-layer flow/shear is
rather weak. Storms thus far have exhibited pulse to weak multicell
characteristics, though one storm did produce severe hail earlier in
northwest IA. Isolated hail will continue to be possible with the
strongest storms, along with some potential for localized downburst
winds. Generally limited storm organization should tend to hamper
the duration and coverage of the severe threat this evening, but
some isolated potential could persist through mid evening.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4R6UjtlFBe4Y2GvDS2NVLArrejtOB8Wj25KNQQKL1keVDZhQJeb_ToAYM9ylF5SWofbGqNER2=
1v0BJkp_7lMpp5kq7U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42809811 43469688 43309500 43019320 42789282 42569266
            42169280 41799313 41439346 41939480 42129556 42189657
            42179728 42189749 42129798 42809811=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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