Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 21:45:29

AWUS01 KWNH 142144
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-150043-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...New Orleans Metropolitan Area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142143Z - 150043Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the broader
New Orleans metropolitan area over the next few hours will
continue to support an urban flash flood threat into the early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms moving into the New Orleans metropolitan
area including adjacent suburbia. The activity is focusing along
the leading edge of an outflow boundary while interacting with a
very moist and unstable airmass pooled across southeast LA.

MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This suggests very high rainfall rate
potential with these storms with potentially 1.5 inches of rain in
as little as 30 minutes. Over the next few hours, slow
cell-motions may support some spotty totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

The activity may last into at least the early evening hours based
on the latest HRRR and RRFS guidance, and given the urban
sensitivities around New Orleans, these rains may result in
additional areas of urban flash flooding heading through the early
evening hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6AjeOYokZNcdYcJYvTHWzjBxEVMybvOpr2D-G2Kc7z39S4JR4hRXr2MRtCySQKr3qrlR=
OUsTwSDuKpijSakRtkt_Ea0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30579003 30408947 29748979 29629064 29999098=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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