Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 17:47:30

ACUS11 KWNS 141747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141746=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Virginia...central/southeast
Virginia...far northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141746Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and pose some risk of
damaging winds as they move east off the Blue Ridge. A watch is not
currently expected given the loosely organized convection.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show deepening cumulus
clouds developing within the Blue Ridge. This is in response to a
weak mid-level trough upstream in the Mid-South. This trend is
expected to continue given the very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and
uncapped airmass. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s F in
southern Virginia and low-level lapse rates will support a few
stronger/potentially damaging wind gusts with activity as it moves
eastward. Given the weakening trough to the west, deep-layer shear
will be modest and storms will only be loosely organized.
Furthermore, weak mid-level lapse rates, sampled by regional 12Z
soundings, will also temper storm intensity. Some guidance has
suggested small-scale clustering may occur. This could lead to a
locally greater threat for wind damage.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5W_XlFWIf_Shb5HNCLbb4UQ8ZGNTAOX0HTEygBh1u2eEQ_4ZO1QddCSkhdFoKmAKwj9BUpFTh=
_lyB9MFk6rsZrFmPeE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36197950 36038117 36288113 37518059 37908021 38137817
            37987733 37557702 37127692 36727715 36587751 36197950=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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