Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1279
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 01:24:22

ACUS11 KWNS 140124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140123=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-140300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central/southeast MT into far
northern WY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

Valid 140123Z - 140300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado
will continue east-southeastward this evening.

DISCUSSION...A small but intense supercell cluster has evolved east
of Billings, where moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear
remain very supportive of organized convection. This cluster appears
capable of producing a localized swath of severe gusts (potentially
near/above 75 mph) as it moves east-southeastward this evening,
along with large to very large hail (possibly wind-driven). A
tornado also cannot be ruled out, given the presence of an embedded
supercell structure and modestly favorable downstream low-level
moisture and effective SRH.=20

Farther southwest, a supercell has recently intensified along the
trailing outflow south of Billings, with additional storm
development possible closer to the MT/WY border with time. These
cells developing near or just behind the trailing outflow could also
pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening.

...Dean.. 06/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7V89EX_BnoZN0ReSbYXnxiVbk9I0xTOmmz-us0Jy20CK07teqfKuhE67GnBh8Qh2gNE1SjM0r=
lcGuIf6ZtHCHfFeQP0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   45530838 45810791 46530719 46530569 45800530 45390530
            44760566 44770749 44890844 44980920 45250931 45530838=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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