Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1278
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 01:03:58

ACUS11 KWNS 140103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140102=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-140200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska...northeast
Colorado...and northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 140102Z - 140200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms may produce a threat for severe gusts
and perhaps some large hail. A watch downstream of WW412 may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing across parts of western Nebraska,
which has produced occasional severe/damaging gusts and large hail.
Ahead of the convection, surface mixing ratios are near 15 g/kg per
mesoanalysis, and short-term model guidance suggests a seasonably
modest nocturnal low-level jet ought to reinforce convection despite
the loss of daytime heating. Wave clouds in visible satellite
suggests some lingering surface stability across parts of central
Nebraska. However, based on the 21Z LBF RAOB with 7-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates, this can easily be overcome by a well-developed cold
pool. These suggest that damaging winds will be the primary threat
with these storms. With the more isolated cells, some large hail is
possible, though storms are expected to continue to cluster with
time, so this may limit the longevity of the hail threat.
Additionally, the duration of the severe threat in the northern part
of this region is uncertain, with convection approaching stable air
north of a stationary boundary.

...Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9hSfJXxy-yLDwRirXc17jddL8OzGGG6-ttyQYK701_Fi_D6VlZ2ehgDhR9NCGHX1gcGQuIgzN=
Hd4dqCtiXSprtdgEK8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41100322 42810335 43200350 43320300 43220230 42930106
            42150053 40620005 39120027 38360156 38490289 39040336
            41100322=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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