Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 14 2025 00:30:26

AWUS01 KWNH 140030
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-140559-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians....Southern DelMarVa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140029Z - 140559Z

Summary...Periods of cell training along an increasingly defined
cold pool should maintain the threat of scattered flash flooding
through this evening.

Discussion...Radar depicts an west-east axis of showers and
thunderstorms growing upscale along an increasingly defined cold
pool bisecting Central Virginia. Recent single source and MRMS
hourly rainfall estimates show increasing rainfall efficiency
within the most robust convective cores -- with localized 2-3" an
hour rates noted over the last 30 minutes.

Inflow characterized by 1.7-2.1" PWATs, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
(with minimal CIN), and deep warm cloud layers of 13,000-14,000
feet, and 20-25 kts of effective shear will support additional
convective clusters which could train/repeat given the parallel
orientation of the steering flow to the emerging cold pool.

Through 6z, the 18z HREF (supported by recent runs of the HRRR and
RRFS) suggest the main corrior of concern will remain over
North-Central Virginia. Probabilities of 6 hour QPF exceeding the
10-100 year ARI in this region range from 20-30% and 10-25%,
respectively. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding
remain possible, some of which could be locally considerable.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7_9Af7xbdhiiX_t57DrbKE_Ucp1kkX7SM1qs9rix-DGVcyHJ3H5Xcovhyg8hv0ba5oFU=
rHwTqm5eSaQzI7FtzDRfk1c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38747781 38657683 38237636 37597677 37377741=20
            37327913 37728063 38278071 38498024 38487892=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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