Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1276
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 13 2025 22:17:20

ACUS11 KWNS 132217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132216=20
MTZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

Valid 132216Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells will spread eastward with time, with a threat
of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a
tornado.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing late this afternoon
across central MT. Strong deep-layer shear (effective shear of
greater than 50 kt) and gradually increasing low-level moisture and
buoyancy with eastward extent will help to maintain these supercells
as they move eastward through late afternoon. 2-inch hail was
reported earlier in Wheatland County, and elongated hodographs and
favorable storm mode will continue to support large to very large
hail potential. Localized severe gusts of 60-80 mph will also be
possible. Low-level flow is relatively weak, but backed surface
winds, relatively favorable low-level moisture, and effective SRH
approaching 100 m2/s2 will also support some tornado potential with
the strongest cells.

...Dean.. 06/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8un9dFSJR2mKp8GnZGk3ZsKMrALLnl2zX6TGIqUKWWB7xt4AdTygaxVOxX90qYEcMLuGUbWC4=
LQph4emCc7OBPBCqQ0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45981036 47380848 47520747 47270689 46970677 46450704
            46110763 45700856 45601034 45981036=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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