Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1275
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 13 2025 20:44:14

ACUS11 KWNS 132043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132043=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Maryland...and the D.C. Metro

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132043Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase through
early this evening across portions of northern VA and MD. A threat
of localized damaging wind gusts exceeding 60 mph appears possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite and radar imagery suggest
moist convection is beginning to deepen near a stationary boundary
draped west to east across northern VA and central MD, with ongoing
thunderstorms beginning to move eastward off the higher terrain.
This boundary will remain a focus for thunderstorm development
through early this evening as a very subtle mid-level shortwave
perturbation approaches from the west, although thunderstorm
coverage should generally remain at or below 40%. Daytime heating
this afternoon, combined with a moist boundary layer, are
contributing to a north-to-south axis of low to moderate instability
nudging into the DC Metro. Although weaker flow aloft should limit
overall thunderstorm organization, steep low-level lapse rates of
8-8.5 C/km and DCAPE ~1300 J/kg could support an isolated damaging
downburst or two. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a severe
weather watch is not expected at this time.

...Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-P4W0tmhYvJaJahXhq60Mkl6c4_-zCxLrgwK31uY3wNO9G6j4ZlnISjsUZApwlsu9PUDYAmvF=
t2mEYvA27HUoD1SrSc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39387892 38997918 38857930 38417956 38257933 38107891
            38117830 38157749 38157703 38027645 38017625 38197554
            38607549 39207615 39477745 39427876 39387892=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.