Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1274
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 13 2025 20:40:52

ACUS11 KWNS 132040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132040=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Western TX/OK
Panhandles...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132040Z - 132245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Several outflow-dominant thunderstorm clusters may develop
across the region this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts are the
primary risk with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to build across the high terrain from
southern CO through central NM, with a few instances of lightning
observed as well. Despite large-scale ridging, thunderstorm coverage
is expected to gradually increase amid persistent southwesterly flow
aloft and related weak ascent. The airmass downstream across the
southern High Plains is deeply mixed, with LCLs from 10 to 12 kft,
and only weakly buoyant. As such, the expectation is for storms to
quickly become outflow-dominant when the move off the terrain over
the next few hours. Outflow interactions could lead to one or more
forward-propagating clusters, any of which could produce strong to
severe wind gusts. Severe coverage will likely remain isolated, and
the need for a watch is uncertain. Overall convective trends will be
monitored closely.

Farther east across western portions of the TX South Plains, an area
of deepening cumulus has been noted. Convective inhibition has
largely eroded in this area, and there is some chance an isolated
storm develops. However, given the significant dry air present,
there is a low-probability for sustained deep convection in the
near-term.

...Mosier/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_vi2Y_j5ttsqaTOqG5WKTuDptejSu7t0rWpWVgS9YIUeJDUQinYpZQXPiYp5spjkAHy_AbRb2=
GDHAlzc1OEfRYWja8A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   37980486 38430440 38260366 37730308 36660263 33970226
            32680364 32500536 34200528 35980502 37980486=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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