Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 13 2025 19:32:50 ACUS03 KWNS 131931 SWODY3 SPC AC 131930 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ....Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ....Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ....North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ...Wendt.. 06/13/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .